Psychological Barriers to Accurate Risk Assessment
A recent article has been making the rounds of ADR professionals. The current issue of the American Psychological Association’s publication Psychology, Public Policy and Law (Vol. 16, No. 2, at 133-57) features a report of a study conducted by a group of scholars from Australia, Sweden and the United States. The group canvassed 481 American attorneys – in civil and criminal cases, both plaintiffs/prosecutors and defense – and found that lawyers are prone to overconfidence. That is, they predict outcomes of their cases that are not only erroneous, but generally too optimistic.
I’m wondering why this is news. I think that we mediators have known this all along; in fact, that’s why we’re hired. Read more »
